China’s printing and writing paper industry continues its downhill path. The 2019 Annual Report of China Paper Association (CPA) showed total production, including newsprint and all other grades of coated and uncoated printing/writing paper, shrank -1.3% from 26.45 million metric tons in 2018 to 26.10 metric tons in 2019. And total consumption, under economic slowdowns in the country, suffered more losses, declining -4.1% from 25.92 million metric tons in 2018 to 24.86 million metric tons in 2019. As a result, the excess of production over consumption rose again from 2% of the previous year to 4.8% in 2019.



Without surprise, newsprint suffered the most by percentage loss. While production falling -21% from the previous year to 1.5 million metric tons in 2019, consumption tumbled -18% at the same time to 1.95 million metric tons, which was the first time below the 2 million metric ton benchmark since 2002! It is generally agreed that China’s newsprint production and consumption will decrease further in 2020.

Coated printing and writing paper is another grade that has lost growing momentum since 2012. Unable to stand steady, annual production fell to 7.05 million metric tons in 2018 and slid further to 6.8 million metric tons in 2019. Erosion in consumption was more significant. The -4.7% drop from 2017 to 2018 was extended to -10.3% from 2018 to 2019. In two years, consumption gave up nearly one million metric tons and paused at 5.42 million metric tons in 2019! No doubt, coated paper production and consumption will struggle further in 2020 when demand for high-end printing becomes a luxury under economic recession at home and abroad.

Uncoated printing/writing paper was the only grade that managed to stay largely intact from 2018. While consumption dipping -0.1% from 2018 to 17.49 million metric tons in 2019, production edged up +2% to 17.80 million metric tons. The growth in production came largely from machine rebuild or conversion, experts cautioned. With additional conversion and greenfield start-ups in 2020, China’s uncoated printing/writing paper capacity will substantially outweigh demand and likely undermine the fragile balance of the industry.