Analysts attribute the following to the changes in China’s RCP recovery and utilization:
1) Enhanced administrative efforts to protect the environment, which regulates domestic RCP collection and consumption, while restricting RCP imports in recent years and ultimately ending it in 2020. The policies hit hard on bulk grade RCP, especially mixed paper, which is now barely marketable in China.
2) Stronger demand for better quality RCP either from domestic or foreign supplies by Nine Dragons and other mainstream paper and board producers. Not content in raising the bar in RCP procurement, many top RCP consumers have also invested and participated in RCP sourcing and processing to secure quality materials.
3) Falling production and consumption of newsprint and coated duplex board in recent years. Such paper and board are prime consumers of RCP. Compared with 2016, China’s newsprint production, for example, shrank -42.31% to 1.5 million/mt by 2019. And mixed performance was also seen in linerboard and medium production during the period. In terms of consumption, newsprint tumbled -26.42% in 2019 from 2016 vs. a moderate +1.65% growth in linerboard and a +4.54% rise in medium at the same time.
More analysts believe the country’s RCP recovery rate will stay relatively steady without much room to improve. On the other hand, utilization rate may continue on a downhill trail until a new boom after completion of restructure in the country’s paper industry to consume more virgin fiber.