Express deliveries reached 40.82 billion in China in the first seven months of 2020, soaring 23.66% from the same period of 2019 and doubling the full year figure of 2017, according to the State Post Bureau (SPB) of China. Its business revenue also rose 13.53% from that of 2019 to RMB454.71 billion. Covering 42% of organized villages in China by now, express pick-ups and deliveries in rural markets exceeded 18 billion from January to July 2020, which was 20% more than that of the urban business, SPB said. At the same time, international express service also revived and grew at 30% rates month after month from May, which enabled the 7-month total to hit 920 million deliveries, up 22.69% from that of 2019.


Official surveys showed the country’s express delivery business consumed 8.56 million metric tons of paper and board in 2018, accounting for 91% of all packaging materials for express delivery. And most of the paper and board consumed were in the form of corrugated packages. Based on a compound annual growth rate of 13.4% built on growth performance in recent years, market analysts predict that China’s express deliveries will likely top 134.9 billion by 2025. As a result, 16.59 billion more paper-based deliveries will be potentially added to the service. This alone will need an additional 4.6 million metric tons of corrugating medium!

Reports from China Paper Association (CPA) showed China produced 22.20 million metric tons of corrugating medium in 2019, while consumption reached 23.74 million metric tons. At the same time, China imported 1.54 million metric tons of corrugating medium (net after exports). Given that consumption already exceeds production and the difference has to be covered by imports from overseas, market analysts believe the country will have to walk on two legs by increasing domestic production and buying more from the global markets down the road in order to meet with the multi-million tons of new demand for corrugating medium. In view of the huge capital requirement for capacity expansion - including production equipment and environmental protection installation investment, and more importantly the limitation in recovered paper and related material generation potentials in the country, more people would pin their hope on greater sourcing in overseas markets to deal with new demand corrugating medium in the years ahead.