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Will Paper Industry Support Packaging Demand Growth?
2019-09-27 09:20chinapaperonline.com
(www.chinapaperonline.com) In the 3rd China (Hangzhou) International Express Delivery Conference (CIEDC), Director Ma Junsheng of the State Post Bureau of China forecasted that the country’s express deliveries would exceed 60 billion in 2019, well ahead of other countries of the world! In average, this would be more than 5 billion pieces each month and could line up several rounds of the world, people said.
Paper boxes and bags are more preferred for their economical and environmentally friendliness, especially those reusable ones. And more than 100 million paper boxes in use today are recovered and reused nationwide in China, significantly saving fiber consumption and reducing carbon emission, according to informed sources.
To support the progress, China’s paper and board industry has aggressively expanded its investment since 2018. In 2019, new capacity start-ups will top 9.5 million/mtpy, including 8 million/mtpy of containerboard, industry reports showed. As all the new capacity expansion projects are built to consume recycled fiber, recovered paper supply will impose a tremendous challenge to the industry.
As China’s recovered paper imports in 2019 may fall to 11 million metric tons, down -57.23% from 2017 and -35.41% from 2018, market analysts believe the sharp declines will result in a 20 million metric ton shortage in recovered paper supply by 2020. At the best scenario of about 2.5 million metric tons of recycled pulp supplies from overseas in 2020, including shipment from facilities run by Nine Dragons and Shanying Paper in North America, supply will still fall behind demand by +17 million metric tons in China. It is expected that there will be enhanced collection and deliveries of recovered paper from Western China to Eastern and Central China and more imports of wood pulp, paper, paperboard and converted paper products into the country in 2020. More significantly, recovered paper market in China will remain tight and price up consistently, prompting more consumption of virgin fiber and upgrades of paper boxes subsequently.

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